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Thread: Precautions for long run 400 VDC cabling?
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face BY : James Cameron email (remove spam text)



On Tue, Sep 05, 2017 at 04:12:10PM +1000, James Cameron wrote:
> (Grid did nearly collapse last summer; forecast demand above available
> generator capacity, and I'm estimating 10% probability of a day long
> collapse this summer, and 30% the year after. It is difficult to plan
> when so many factors may perturb the system on a whim, and the
> perturbations haven't been long term lately.  Call me the leading edge
> of the death spiral.)

Further comment.

Available generator capacity is constrained by thermal coal plant
sighted within coal reserves that have now been exhausted, now moving
fuel from further away, and hanging on waiting for the plant
maintenance costs to exceed profit after transport costs.  Just
business and logistics.

None of which seems to be visible in the public political discourse
which instead fixates on policy responses.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-06/electricity-markets-struggling-as-coal-shuts-down-aemo-says/8875874

And risk of load-shedding this summer estimated by the market operator
at up to 43% for most vulnerable state.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-05/turnbull-in-talks-with-agl-keep-liddell-coal-power-station-open/8874874

Load-shedding typically begins with the large industrial customers
like aluminium production.

-- James Cameron
http://quozl.netrek.org/
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