piclist 2008\08\08\081912a >
Thread: :: The sun is going out
face BY : Apptech email (remove spam text)

> >As I'm sure you know, the sunspot cycle has a frequency
> >of
>>about 11 years.

> Something I saw recently gave it as varying between 8 and
> 14 years. I hadn't
> appreciated the variation was that wide until I saw the
> article, I had
> always taken it as being a solid 11 years.

Current cycle is 'very anomalous' and causing much concern.
It MAY pull out but at present the new cycle is far far far
overdue by any usual standards *. The prediction setters at
NASA and all are hanging tough and did not update the
predictions this year that they had made last year. It is
presently creeping outside their lower limits with every
sign of continuing BUT could change at any moment. The next
few months will show if the trend continues but interesting
times may be ahead.

Note that this all doesn't address the validity or otherwise
of the 'science'  behind global warming. We could go through
eg a 15 year very low temperature blip (eg a Maunder
minimum) - or longer, and the manmade variations, whatever
they are, could be swamped, without changing the basic idea
either way. Worst case we may hope that the CO2 scenarios
are true as we may want to burn as much carbon as we can a
few decades on :-(.

* As we are also long long overdue for the next ice age
(about 2000 years!) then one can hope that what we are
seeing now is not the first stages of it all starting to get
REALLY cold. As an idea, much of North American continent
can see about 1000-2000 feet of ice cover in an ice age.
Makes clearing the walks very difficult.


>NASA plot of sunspot activity.
>Updated monthly.
>         http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/index.html

<0cb101c8f950$f4abd160$e701a8c0@y2k> 7bit

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Subject (change) :: The sun is going out

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