piclist 2002\08\21\133632a >
Thread: Is GP fabricating Global Warming evidentiary material?
picon face BY : Mark Perri email (remove spam text)

Dear Jim,

I wouldn't exactly refer to Greenpeace and the New York
Times as scientific publications, and therefore you shouldn't
be convinced to believe in or not believe in global warming
based on their stories.  I'm not surprised that they either
exaggerate to sell publications or to win over those who
aren't convinced yet.

But what you should listen to is every single credible
atmospheric scientist and publication that states that
global warming is definitely true and producing significant
climate change.  The problem with getting people
to believe in global climate change is that it is an extremely
difficult and complex problem and therefore involves a good
deal of uncertainty.

I don't have the latest recommendation in front of me,
but it's in the neighborhood of 3 +/- 1 degree C, or
a more conservative number like 2 +/- 2 depending on which
model is run.  Now, here's where the problem lies.  The
scientists who determine these numbers publish them and of
course publish their uncertainties, or else they would be very
dishonest.  To any other scientist, you look at the numbers
and know that about 2-3 degrees of global warming will occur
with a fair amount of certainty.

But if you're someone like President Bush with ulterior motives,
you say, "Wow look at these uncertainties.  Why can't the
scientists have zero error and be 100% correct.  Plus my
science advisors and the general public have no idea about
climate change.  I'll 'Do Little and Delay'"  Which is what ends
up happening here in the US because we'd rather do what's
good for the economy rather than the Earth.  It's too bad
the US administration seems to actually need someone
to exaggerate before they will listen.

At 08:19 PM 8/20/02, you wrote:
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