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'[TECH]:: The sun is going out'
2008\08\07@132916 by Apptech

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NASA plot of sunspot activity.
Updated monthly.

       http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/index.html

I've been saving these each month for some months now and
it's been interesting to see the activity continue to drop
towards zero while the predictions gamely urge it to
splutter into life.

Maunder minimum in the wings, or just a hiccup. Stay tuned,
could be interesting.


       Russell

2008\08\07@133655 by PAUL James

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All,

As I'm sure you know, the sunspot cycle has a frequency of about 11
years.
So if we are in the middle of this period, sunspot activity will be at a
mininum.  
In another few years, you'll see it going back up again.
Check out the ARRL website for more info.
       

                                                       Regards,

                                                         Jim


{Original Message removed}

2008\08\07@133910 by Chris Smolinski

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>NASA plot of sunspot activity.
>Updated monthly.
>
>         http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/index.html
>
>I've been saving these each month for some months now and
>it's been interesting to see the activity continue to drop
>towards zero while the predictions gamely urge it to
>splutter into life.
>
>Maunder minimum in the wings, or just a hiccup. Stay tuned,
>could be interesting.

Some are suggesting a double minimum, as has occurred before. IMHO
it's tough to predict how the Sun should behave, we only have two
dozen solar cycles worth of data to work with - a few centuries out
of the 5 billion year age of the Sun.

NASA/etc have been very public in saying that the Sun is acting
normally, everything is fine, nothing to see here folks, move along.
Most likely to calm fears that we are headed into a Maunder or Dalton
minimum.  I also would not be surprised if  some of it is to counter
statements that the reduced solar activity is coinciding with a drop
in global temperatures, which might lead some to suspect that man
made global warming is not all it is claimed to be, which could have
a negative impact on government climate research funding ;-)

FWIW, a 2006 forecast from a new solar model is doing pretty well right now:
http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/2006-arlp010.html


--

---
Chris Smolinski
Black Cat Systems
http://www.blackcatsystems.com

2008\08\07@134120 by M. Adam Davis

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How long back do we have usable records of solar spot activity?  Even
though the human lifespan is short, the solar lifespan is long and I
would be surprised if any signal in the frequency range of a human
lifespan is anything more than noise...

-Adam

On 8/7/08, Apptech <spam_OUTapptechTakeThisOuTspamparadise.net.nz> wrote:
{Quote hidden}

> -

2008\08\08@040737 by Alan B. Pearce

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>As I'm sure you know, the sunspot cycle has a frequency of
>about 11 years.

Something I saw recently gave it as varying between 8 and 14 years. I hadn't
appreciated the variation was that wide until I saw the article, I had
always taken it as being a solid 11 years.

2008\08\08@081912 by Apptech

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> >As I'm sure you know, the sunspot cycle has a frequency
> >of
>>about 11 years.

> Something I saw recently gave it as varying between 8 and
> 14 years. I hadn't
> appreciated the variation was that wide until I saw the
> article, I had
> always taken it as being a solid 11 years.

Current cycle is 'very anomalous' and causing much concern.
It MAY pull out but at present the new cycle is far far far
overdue by any usual standards *. The prediction setters at
NASA and all are hanging tough and did not update the
predictions this year that they had made last year. It is
presently creeping outside their lower limits with every
sign of continuing BUT could change at any moment. The next
few months will show if the trend continues but interesting
times may be ahead.

Note that this all doesn't address the validity or otherwise
of the 'science'  behind global warming. We could go through
eg a 15 year very low temperature blip (eg a Maunder
minimum) - or longer, and the manmade variations, whatever
they are, could be swamped, without changing the basic idea
either way. Worst case we may hope that the CO2 scenarios
are true as we may want to burn as much carbon as we can a
few decades on :-(.

* As we are also long long overdue for the next ice age
(about 2000 years!) then one can hope that what we are
seeing now is not the first stages of it all starting to get
REALLY cold. As an idea, much of North American continent
can see about 1000-2000 feet of ice cover in an ice age.
Makes clearing the walks very difficult.



       Russell

>NASA plot of sunspot activity.
>Updated monthly.
>
>         http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/index.html
>


2008\08\08@092447 by PAUL James

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Alan,

This is true.  However, the median value is still 11 years.  In other
words, if you look between two like magnitudes on the sunspot time line,
it could be anywhere between 8 years and 14 years.  If you average the
magnitudes over the timeline, they will average to about 11 years.  Or
11 years plus or minus 3.   Anyway, 11 years is just a reference point.
It isn't carved in stone as you've pointed out.

       
       
Regards,

       
Jim

                                                                       



{Original Message removed}

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