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'[OT] Sorry to ruin the fun, but an ice age cometh '
2008\04\24@211230 by Enki

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www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0%2C25197%2C23583376-
5013480%2C00.html

or here:

http://tinyurl.com/6jrpob

2008\04\25@083552 by Apptech

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> http://tinyurl.com/6jrpob

What's new ? :-)

Alas :-(.

If you have ANY interest in the Global Warming 'debate' you
want to read the above page - a few minutes to read.
Sobering.
Brief comment below.

And then, there's this superb article by the great Freeman
Dyson.
Possibly the single best Global Warming paper I've ever
read.

       http://others.servebeer.com/misc/gw/GW_Freeman_Dyson.pdf

                       Many other GW related papers in
                                       http://others.servebeer.com/misc/gw

_____________________

Is another "little ice age" about to start? Entirely
possible.
We should know in 6 months to a few years as sunspot cycle
24 gets going properly
We just don't know enough yet to be certain.

Is AGW (Anthropogenic Global Warming) as per IPCC
projections happening?
Possible but pretty unlikely.
We just don't know enough yet to be certain.

Is AGW of some sort rather at odds with most IPCC
projections happening?
Quite possible. We just don't know enough yet to be certain.

Are there many good scientists doing good science as best
they can and providing the results that IPCC forms top level
policy from?
Of course.

Are the IPCC a pack of lying science-distorting turkeys who
are making it hard to find out what the world is trying to
do and prepare for it?
Absolutely.
We know enough yet to be certain :-).



       Russell


2008\04\25@094513 by Paul Hutchinson

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> -----Original Message-----
> From: spam_OUTpiclist-bouncesTakeThisOuTspammit.edu On Behalf Of Enki
> Sent: Thursday, April 24, 2008 9:12 PM
>
> www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0%2C25197%2C23583376-
> 5013480%2C00.html
> or here:
> http://tinyurl.com/6jrpob

See also:
www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2008/s2225759.htm
and
http://www.aussmc.org/ScienceBlog.php

Paul Hutch


2008\04\25@095826 by Bob Axtell

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Paul Hutchinson wrote:
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: .....piclist-bouncesKILLspamspam@spam@mit.edu On Behalf Of Enki
>> Sent: Thursday, April 24, 2008 9:12 PM
>>
>> www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0%2C25197%2C23583376-
>> 5013480%2C00.html
>> or here:
>> http://tinyurl.com/6jrpob
>>    
>
> See also:
> www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2008/s2225759.htm
> and
> http://www.aussmc.org/ScienceBlog.php
>
> Paul Hutch
>
>
>  
Wow. I just HAVE to find the time to keep up. GW and Ice Age at the
same time. Doesn't anybody but me find this odd?

--Bob A

2008\04\25@101524 by Michael Rigby-Jones

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> -----Original Message-----
> From: piclist-bouncesspamKILLspammit.edu [.....piclist-bouncesKILLspamspam.....mit.edu] On
Behalf
{Quote hidden}

If they happened at the same time I'd find it odd, but one being a
precursor to the other seems quite feasible.

Mike

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2008\04\25@105046 by Tony Smith

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{Quote hidden}

The theory is that GW causes all the ice up North to melt.  This fresh water
reduces the salinity of the sea, around Greenland etc.  The problem is that
this causes the Gulf stream (warm water that flows across the Altantic, say
roughly Florida to France) to stop.  Well, it stop the return current, the
Altantic conveyer, where the cold water flows back.

Without the Gulf stream, you get a mini ice-age.  It's ok, once the Gulf
stream restarts all goes back to normal.  Or something like that.

I think this was the premise behind the movie 'The Day After Tomorrrow', but
I wasn't paying attention.

Tony

2008\04\25@105907 by Apptech

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>>> http://tinyurl.com/6jrpob

>> See also:
>> www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2008/s2225759.htm
>> and
>> http://www.aussmc.org/ScienceBlog.php

> Wow. I just HAVE to find the time to keep up. GW and Ice
> Age at the
> same time. Doesn't anybody but me find this odd?

The only people on this list who would find it odd are those
who haven't been listening to what I've been saying about
the subject for "quite a long time now" [tm]. :-). IPCC et
al say 'business as usual'. Others say "'you canna break the
laws of physics ..."

2007 had a larger temperature drop than any year since 1930.

Antarctic ice melt rate (not mentioned in the above article)
was 2nd lowest in the last 20 years and 40% of 20 year
average and 4 times lower than in a number of the last 20
years.

Sunspot cycle 24 is predicted to be "moderately large and
will suddenly arrive like a freight train and save us [tm]"
/ late and wimpy and precursor to little ice age Dalton
Minimum 1870's freeze period / none of these things.

Until NASA revised their satellite data with a little
prompting from their "friends" things had been getting
rather hot of late. Now things have been cooling since.

FWIW Greenland ice melt rate of 1 cubic mile of water / day
(!!!!!!) if NOT offset by any snow addition (which is not
the case) would cause an ocean level rise of about 2mm/year.

The GW doomdoom crowd say that this cold blip is a temporary
intermission caused by the latest La Ninya and transmission
/ more of the recent same will resume shortly.

The triumphalist boring GW-is-trash crowd say we are about
to get frozen.

Reasonable balanced [tm] people like Freeman Dyson say

       http://others.servebeer.com/misc/gw/GW_Freeman_Dyson.pdf


           Russell

2008\04\25@110039 by Apptech

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>> Wow. I just HAVE to find the time to keep up. GW and Ice
>> Age at the
>> same time. Doesn't anybody but me find this odd?

> If they happened at the same time I'd find it odd, but one
> being a
> precursor to the other seems quite feasible.

Some sunspot cycle stuff.
Note the rapidly changing predictions and the uncertainty
and disagreement amongst "experts".

It does seem certain that the climate is going to change
:-).


       R


________________

Butterflies
Note 1870 lowdensity but incomplete data.
Note 1970's low
Try and fit patterns to latest cycle ;-)


       http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/bfly.gif

The very quiet sun at present

       http://sidc.oma.be/
       sohohttp://www.nascom.nasa.gov/sunspots/

NASA Marshall Solar Physics group

       http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/


Here, as recently as April 2nd, NASA are predicting a
moderately large cycle.

       http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml

BUT !!!!
In December 2006 they were predicting a very very large
cycle 24 based on prior cycles
The peak they were predicting then was 1.5 to 2.5 years
earlier than what is being predicted now - see gif below.

       http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/21dec_cycle24.htm

Larger picture
Their predicted ascent slope of cycle 24 seems excessive and
differently shaped to prior cycle.
What would I know.

       http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_predict_l.gif

Data from 1874 - excessive ;-)

       http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/greenwch.shtml

Numerous learned papers

       http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/papers.shtml#WilsonHathaway2008a


2008\04\25@111025 by Apptech

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It's gonna get colder

>> www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0%2C25197%2C23583376-
>> 5013480%2C00.html
>> or here:
>> http://tinyurl.com/6jrpob


It certainly isn't !!!!

> www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2008/s2225759.htm
> and
> http://www.aussmc.org/ScienceBlog.php

Thanks Paul.
Excellent balance to prior posts.
The latter commentator is arguably the more qualified to
comment.
But, may well be wrong.

We should get a much clearer picture in the 6 months to 2
years range.



       Russell


2008\04\25@115617 by Apptech

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{Quote hidden}

The above is ~~= one scenario, but not one that has major
support at present.
There is a subsurface return current to the Gulf Stream
called "The Atlantic Conveyer". This is the one that is
perhaps at risk of stoppage.
Without the pair working Britain would be ice bound all year
round under the current climate.

But most arguments are Ice Age OR Global Warming focused.

The IPCC won't have a bar of ice ages at present.
Within two years or so we'll probably have a fair indication
if they are a pack of correct lying turkeys or incorrect
lying turkeys.

Correct lying turkeys approximates to heroes as it means
they get things done quicker than by due process. BUT it
never works without cost. If they are wrong then they are
traitors as they have the world doing the opposite of what
it needs because they cheated, and if that DID happen time
for action would be vvv short.

Time will tell.


       R

2008\04\25@124539 by Tony Smith

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{Quote hidden}

I thought I said that.  Oh well, nevermind.

Tony

2008\04\25@194102 by Apptech

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>> There is a subsurface return current to the Gulf Stream
>> called "The Atlantic Conveyer". This is the one that is
>> perhaps at risk of stoppage.

> I thought I said that.  Oh well, nevermind.
>
> Tony

You did too.
Can't imagine why I felt the need to expand upon the already
expanded on.
My mind is going. I can feel it Dave ....
Daisy ............

           R


2008\04\26@085925 by Dario Greggio

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Bob Axtell wrote:
> Wow. I just HAVE to find the time to keep up. GW and Ice Age at the
> same time. Doesn't anybody but me find this odd?

Don't know.
I can see global warming in here, in winter/spring, and rivers with just
a little water, and very little snow.
But, summer has been cold lately (3-4 yrs).

All in all, I call it "tropicaliation"...

--
Ciao, Dario -- ADPM Synthesis sas -- http://www.adpm.tk

2008\04\26@100639 by Apptech

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> Don't know.
> I can see global warming in here, in winter/spring, and
> rivers with just
> a little water, and very little snow.
> But, summer has been cold lately (3-4 yrs).

Since 1998 in fact!

> All in all, I call it "tropicaliation"...

If cold summers are tropicalisation, what are warm summers
called ? :-)


       Russell


2008\04\26@101935 by Bob Axtell

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Apptech wrote:
{Quote hidden}

vacation?

2008\04\26@110939 by Apptech

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>> If cold summers are tropicalisation, what are warm
>> summers
>> called ? :-)

> vacation?

Endangered?
:-)
:-(.

For the world's sake I hope that the GW sheeple herd are
right.
The ice age (mini or full) alternative seems far far far
worse.

As we are about 2000 years overdue for an ice age (10,000
year interglacial every 100,000 they say) I'd be nervously
watching that as a major concern.

We may yet see ourselves nuking undersea Methane hydrates to
help stave off a 90,000 year winter :-) :-( .



           Russell


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