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'[OT]: (not) Junk Science Watch'
2004\08\26@012138 by Roy Ward

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OK, this looks a bit like someone trolling, and I can't see what
prompted that post, but I'll bite:

On Thu, 26 Aug 2004 16:23, rad0 wrote:
> It looks like the 'Peak Oil' people have atleast convinced
> the delusional and naive left that their ideas are 'incontrovertible.

I don't think anything in science is incontrovertible, we can't always
wait for a problem to even be nearly incontrovertible before doing
something about it.

The idea that oil use is going to peak seems overwhelmingly likely
though, simply based on us using it faster than it is being created.
Could you please explain how this is delusional and naive?

The real debate seems to be when we will start to run out - even the
most conservative estimates I've seen make it sometime this century,
with most estimates towards the early part rather than the later.

> But what is the status of the very first idea that crude oil comes
> from fossils?
>
> Isn't this really only a hypothesis?
>
> Is there proof that crude is actually a 'fossil fuel'?

Well, in terms of the peak oil problem, does it really matter? We are
currently extracting something like 82 million barrels a day (as I
recall), and I've not heard any evidence to suggest that it is being
created at anything like that rate (whether through fossils or whatever
other mechanism anyone wants to propose), so at some point, we either
have to move away from dependence on oil for energy, or we have a big
problem.

BTW, the language of the post I'm replying to: "junk science",
"delusional", "naive" are the sort of emotive words I've seen a lot
more often recently - often by vested interests trying to stifle
debate.

Roy Ward.

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2004\08\26@044803 by Howard Winter

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On Thu, 26 Aug 2004 17:20:35 +1200, Roy Ward wrote:

> The real debate seems to be when we will start to run
out - even the
> most conservative estimates I've seen make it sometime
this century,
> with most estimates towards the early part rather than
the later.

British Gas has just announced a price increase (of
about 12% I think) "due to dwindling supplies".  We've
been getting Natural Gas out of the North Sea for about
thirty years, and originally they seemed to think it
would last for "the forseeable future".  Obviously they
weren't very farsighted!

Cheers,


Howard Winter
St.Albans, England

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2004\08\26@122959 by Russell McMahon

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> The idea that oil use is going to peak seems overwhelmingly likely
> though, simply based on us using it faster than it is being created.
> Could you please explain how this is delusional and naive?
>
> The real debate seems to be when we will start to run out - even the
> most conservative estimates I've seen make it sometime this century,
> with most estimates towards the early part rather than the later.

Some models suggest we have already past peak production.
Shale oil has capacity far in excess of what we have gor from free oil to
date BUT extraction is much more difficult.
It is suggested that deep sea Methane Hydrate reserves may be a viable
future energy source.


> > But what is the status of the very first idea that crude oil comes
> > from fossils?

Crude oil and coal has been shown to be able to be made from raw biological
matter using very moderate heat and pressure in a few years.
A US firm has a process which they claom can convert almost any biological
waste product into oil and similar products.
I saw a TV program in which they demonstrated turning offal and similar from
a chicken processing plant into oil products - which is not to say that it
is actually genuine :-(.



       RM

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2004\08\27@102725 by hilip Stortz

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well, you should never, never believe the claims of marketing people or
those with an interest in stock prices and funding!  there was a time
when "power too cheap to meter" was promised early in the development of
nuclear power, you know, the stuff that is actually the most expensive
power ever generated, even before disposal cost.

Howard Winter wrote:
-----
> British Gas has just announced a price increase (of
> about 12% I think) "due to dwindling supplies".  We've
> been getting Natural Gas out of the North Sea for about
> thirty years, and originally they seemed to think it
> would last for "the forseeable future".  Obviously they
> weren't very farsighted!
-------

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requires an informed public, with their eyes open.

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