Searching \ for '[OT]:: watch or do - Camina del Ray / El Camino, S' in subject line. ()
Make payments with PayPal - it's fast, free and secure! Help us get a faster server
FAQ page: www.piclist.com/techref/index.htm?key=watch+camina+del
Search entire site for: ': watch or do - Camina del Ray / El Camino, S'.

Exact match. Not showing close matches.
PICList Thread
'[OT]:: watch or do - Camina del Ray / El Camino, S'
2008\05\25@150207 by Cedric Chang

flavicon
face
1)  I find that the things I have watched on video versus the things  
I have actually done, have the same resonance for me.  Weeks after,  
they all seem as real and I enjoy the memories of real and ( fake? )  
experiences equally well.  I get just as intense a rush watching the  
video as being there.  Admittedly I can then go out for fish and  
chips after watching the video, while in real life it might rain and  
I could catch a cold.

2)  I have maybe 1/2 dozen near misses where life and death were  
measured in feet and seconds and in one instance by 3 inches and .01  
seconds ( a bullet by the head ).  A lot of the time I was stupid and  
lived anyway.

3)  The way I would approach the Camina del Ray walk would be to find  
out how much traffic there is each day, what the death toll is and  
from what .  Then I would go if the statistics tended to favor it and  
I would make sure if I did it that someone was walking along ahead of  
me ( at least 100 feet ahead ).  I would make sure I noted where the  
walkway crumbled and the person in front of me fell to their death.

cc

2008\05\27@164627 by Nate Duehr

face
flavicon
face

On May 25, 2008, at 1:01 PM, Cedric Chang wrote:

> 3)  The way I would approach the Camina del Ray walk would be to find
> out how much traffic there is each day, what the death toll is and
> from what .  Then I would go if the statistics tended to favor it and
> I would make sure if I did it that someone was walking along ahead of
> me ( at least 100 feet ahead ).  I would make sure I noted where the
> walkway crumbled and the person in front of me fell to their death.



The problem with thinking this way, is that chance doesn't work this  
way.

For the same reasons a completely random pull of a slot machine is  
just that, random... chances that the concrete will fall apart are the  
same for you 100 feet behind, as the guy in front.  He may be looking  
BACK at the hole you left.

Humans make this "if it worked for the first guy, it'll work for me"  
thought-process mistake all the time.

--
Nate Duehr
spam_OUTnateTakeThisOuTspamnatetech.com



2008\05\27@170602 by Peter Todd

flavicon
face
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA1

On Tue, May 27, 2008 at 02:46:02PM -0600, Nate Duehr wrote:
{Quote hidden}

That's completely wrong. Concrete breaking isn't a random chance
process, it's a slow degregation from pristine to collapses under it's
own weight. So if it's current breaking strength is 500lb, and a 150lb
person walks over it, you have a pretty good chance of making it if you
are also 150lb. A year later the breaking strength may be 100lb...

Obviously there is some chance involved, if the guy happened to step on
particularly strong bits, but it's not a pure roll of the dice, and
watching 100 people go first would be a decent indicator. (provided they
aren't further damaging that concrete too!)

The human mind makes that assumption, because in general it's correct.

- --
http://petertodd.org 'peter'[:-1]@petertodd.org
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----
Version: GnuPG v1.4.6 (GNU/Linux)

iD8DBQFIPHd/3bMhDbI9xWQRAqhhAJ9a96ykBDZqOXwfwyHyQFyBrNemsgCeKD1U
MI9NUEkqTuMIQp/k5ZcVdkc=
=F3qF
-----END PGP SIGNATURE-----

2008\05\27@174844 by Nate Duehr

face
flavicon
face

On May 27, 2008, at 3:05 PM, Peter Todd wrote:

> Obviously there is some chance involved, if the guy happened to step  
> on
> particularly strong bits, but it's not a pure roll of the dice, and
> watching 100 people go first would be a decent indicator. (provided  
> they
> aren't further damaging that concrete too!)

And since you can't TELL if they are damaging the concrete and in this  
particular case that multiple chunks of it have already fallen out...  
we're not talking about 100 people going over it, we're talking about  
him using a single "lead man" ahead of him.

You're essentially down to something so close to the luck of the draw,  
you might as well call it that and behave rationally according to what  
you know.

It's the same as traversing a glacier... the first guy across the weak  
spot isn't always the one to fall in the crevasse.

I'm just saying that the "send one guy ahead 100 feet" technique is  
horribly flawed.

--
Nate Duehr
.....nateKILLspamspam@spam@natetech.com



2008\05\27@201715 by piclist
flavicon
face
On May 27, 2008, at 3:05 PM, Peter Todd wrote:
> Obviously there is some chance involved, if the guy happened to step on
> particularly strong bits, but it's not a pure roll of the dice, and
> watching 100 people go first would be a decent indicator. (provided  
> they aren't further damaging that concrete too!)

I would want to look at how many people died, and HOW they died.

Did they slip or did the walkway fail?

And 100,000 could go over that without a death and I still wouldn't do it
because I'd trip and kill myself because I am a klutz.  Statistics only go
so far before the real world rears it's ugly head. :-)

--
Ian Smith
http://www.ian.org

2008\05\28@031030 by Cedric Chang

flavicon
face
{Quote hidden}

Only if you want to live forever
cc


2008\05\28@031148 by Cedric Chang

flavicon
face
{Quote hidden}

how do you approach driving ?
will you let me know when you are on the road ?
cc

2008\05\28@164631 by Nate Duehr

face
flavicon
face
Cedric Chang wrote:

>> I'm just saying that the "send one guy ahead 100 feet" technique is
>> horribly flawed.
>
> Only if you want to live forever

I'm not overly risk-averse, but I am conservative about not doing
"stupid" things.

I'm a private pilot, and we're kinda known (even though the rest of the
world thinks we are "risk-takers") for pre-planning as much as possible
to lower our in-cockpit workload so we can enjoy the flight.  Planning
and training for various scenarios is something all (good) pilots do
regularly.

Death by stupidity or neglect of reasonable safety measures, isn't much
appreciated in the pilot psyche.  :-)

Or the way one of my mentors put it years ago, Piss Poor Planning Equals
Piss Poor Performance... just like Electronics and Software Engineering.

:-)

Nate

2008\05\28@200157 by Apptech

face
flavicon
face
Quotes at end are almost worth reading.

> Death by stupidity or neglect of reasonable safety
> measures, isn't much
> appreciated in the pilot psyche.  :-)

> Or the way one of my mentors put it years ago, Piss Poor
> Planning Equals
> Piss Poor Performance... just like Electronics and
> Software Engineering.


"Adventure is just bad planning"

       Roald Amundsen

I appear to be a traveller, according to anon

   "The traveller was active; he went strenuously in search
of people, of adventure, of experience. The tourist is
passive." anon



           Russell

_______________________________________


Not to mention (even as I do)
Many quite good.
But not all.


       http://www.dirtyboots.co.za/adventure%20quotes.htm


       "An adventure is only an inconvenience rightly
considered. An inconvenience is an adventure wrongly
considered." G.K. Chesterton

       "Nobody is ever met at the airport when beginning a
new adventure. It's just not done." Elizabeth Warnock
Fernea. A View of the Nile

       "Adventure must be held in delicate fingers. It
should be handled, not embraced. It should be sipped, not
swallowed at a gulp." Ashley Dukes, The Man with a Load of
Mischief

       "Adventure is hardship aesthetically considered."
Barry Targan

       "Life is a dangerous adventure,' says the American,
and he is half right: life is dangerous, but it's not an
adventure." Jose Bergamin

       "The thirst for adventure is the vent which Destiny
offers; a war, a crusade, a gold mine, a new country, speak
to the imagination and offer..." Ralf Waldo Emerson

       "The test of an adventure is that when you're in the
middle of it say to yourself, 'Oh, now I've got myself into
an awful mess; I wish..." Thornton Wilder

       "Life is a fatal adventure. It can only have one
end. So why not make it as far-ranging and free as
possible." Alexander Eliot

       "There are two kinds of adventurers: those who go
truly hoping to find adventure and those who go secretly
hoping they won't." William Trogdon

       "We're not home-and-hearth people. We're the
adventurers, the buccaneers, the blockade runners. Without
challenge, we're only alive." Alexandra Ripley

       "Adventure is not outside a man; it is within." Ray
Stannard Baker

       "Adventure is worthwhile in itself." Amelia Earhart

       "Avoiding danger is no safer in the long run than
outright exposure, it is either a daring adventure or
nothing." Helen Keller

       "Gullibility is the key to all adventures. The
greenhorn is the ultimate victor in everything; it is he who
gets the most out of life." G.K. Chesterton

       "I am not an adventurer by choice but by fate."
Vincent van Gogh

       "Life ought to be a struggle of desire toward
adventures whose nobility will fertilize the soul." Rebecca
West

       "The adventure is over. Everything gets over, and
nothing is ever enough. Except the part you carry with you."
E.L. Konigsburg

       "To die will be an awfully big adventure." James
Matthew Barrie

       "Adventures happen only to those incapable of
planning an expedition." Richard Evans Schultes

       "Get out of control, but appear under control. It's
not bad to alarm other people, though - it's good for them."
Hunter S. Thompson

       "Life is either a great adventure or nothing." Helen
Keller

       "Courage is doing what you're afraid to do. There
can be no courage unless you're scared." Eddie Rickebacker

       "A timid person is frightened before a danger, a
coward during the time, and a courageous person afterward."
Jean Paul Richter

       "Courage is being scared to death - but saddling up
anyway." John Wayne

       "It is only in adventure that some people succeed in
knowing themselves - in finding themselves." André Gide

       "I have found adventure in flying, in world travel,
in business, and even close at hand ... Adventure is a state
of mind - and spirit." Jacqueline Cochran

       "There is no end to the adventures that we can have
if only we seek them with our eyes open." Jawaharla Nehru

       "The biggest adventure you can ever take is to live
the life of your dreams." Oprah Winfrey

       "Everything a human being wants can be divided into
four components: love, adventure, power and fame." Johan
Wolfgang von Goethe

       "I doubt whether the world holds for anyone a more
soul-stirring surprise than the first adventure with ice
cream." Matthew Heywood

       "Adventure is worthwhile." Aesop

       "The traveler was active; he went stenuously in
search of people, of adventure, of experience. The tourist
is passive." anon

       "Don't be afraid to expand yourself, to step out of
your comfort zone. That's where the joy and the adventure
lie." anon

       "A large volume of adventures may be grasped within
this little span of life, by him who interests his heart in
everything." Laurence Sterne

       "Chance is the providence of adventurers." Napoleon
Bonaparte

       "Do not go where the path may lead, go instead where
there is no path and leave a trail." Ralph Waldo Emerson

       "If you're not living on the edge, you're taking up
too much space." Anonymous

       "In the universe, there are things that are known,
and things that are unknown, and in between, there are
doors." William Blake

       "Gauls! We have nothing to fear; except perhaps that
the sky may fall on our heads tomorrow. But as we all know,
tomorrow never comes!" Adventures of Asterix

       "A life without adventure is likely to be
unsatisfying, but a life in which adventure is allowed to
take whatever form it will is sure to be short." Bertrand
Russell

       "Adventure is the champagne of life." G.K.
Chesterton

       "Adventures are to the adventurous." English Proverb

       "And yet a little tumult, now and then, is an
agreeable quickener of sensation; such as a revolution, a
battle, or an adventure of any lively description." Lord
Byron

       "Without adventure civilization is in full decay."
Alfred North Whitehead

       "It's when you're safe at home that you wish you
were having an adventure. When you're having an adventure
you wish your were safe at home." Thornton Wilder

       "It is always the adventurers who do great things,
not the sovereigns of great empires." Charles-Louis de
Montesquieu

       "We should come home from adventures, and perils,
and discoveries every day with new experience and
character." Henry David Thoreau

       "Let the spirit of adventure set the tone." anon

       "For an occurrence to become an adventure, it is
necessary and sufficient for one to recount it." Jean-Paul
Sartre

       "Men of age object too much, consult too long,
adventure too little, repent too soon, and seldom drive
business home to the full period, but ..." Francis Bacon

       "'Oh, if I had only known, if I had only been ready,'
our lives can really be the great adventure we so
passionately want them to be." Hortense Odlum

       "I'm going to take you on the greatest adventure of
your life. You probably will never even thank me. Let's go."
Austin

       "Adventure, without it, why live?" Johan Radcliffe

       "'Life is a dangerous adventure,' says the American,
and he is half right: life is dangerous, but it's not an
adventure." Jose Bergamin

       "The thirst for adventure is the vent which Destiny
offers; a war, a crusade, a gold mine, a new country, speak
to the imagination and offer..." Ralf Waldo Emerson

       "The test of an adventure is that when you're in the
middle of it say to yourself, 'Oh, now I've got myself into
an awful mess; I wish..." Thornton Wilder

       "Life is a fatal adventure. It can only have one
end. So why not make it as far-ranging and free as
possible." Alexander Eliot

       "I decided that adventure was the best way to
learn." Lloyd Alexander

       "I have but one life to give to adventure." Bors The
adventures of Sir Galahad

       "Renegades is a better word. It implies a spirit of
adventure. Desertion is cowardly. We're not that." Captain
Jefferson Addis

       "Come on! There is greater adventure beyond."
Porthos The Iron Mask

       "The colour of adrenalin is brown." Jenny Radcliffe

       "I want to find something else, unknowable, some
place to be that's not on the map. A real adventure. A
sphinx. A mystery. A blank. Unknown. Undefined." Chuck
Palahniuk

       "Adventure is worthwhile." Aristotle

       "This you should do unless you are one of the
blessed few in whom the pure spirit of adventure is not
dead." Henry, O.

       "Adventure: the pursuit of life." Daniel Roy Wiarda

       "Whether we call it sacrifice, or poetry, or
adventure, it is always the same voice that calls." Antoine
de Saint-Exupéry

       "Flyers have a sense of adventures yet to come,
instead of dimly recalling adventures of long ago as the
only moments in which they truly lived." Richard Bach

       "One way to get the most out of life is to look upon
it as an adventure." William Feather

       "Every man can transform the world from one of the
monotony and drabness to one of excitement and adventure."
Irving Wallace

       "'Adventurer' . he that goes to meet whatever may
come. Well, that is what we all do in the world one way or
another..." H. Rider Haggard

       "We live in a world full of beauty, charm and
adventure. There is no end to the adventures that we can
have if only we seek them with our eyes open." Jawaharlal
Nehru

       "Who dares nothing, need hope for nothing." Johan
Friedrick von Schiller

       "A large volume of adventures may be grasped within
this little span of life, by him who interests his heart in
everything." Laurence Sterne

       "If we do not find anything very pleasant, at least
we shall find something new." Voltaire

       "Man cannot discover new oceans unless he has the
courage to lose sight of the shore." André Gide

       "Why, I'd like nothing better than to achieve some
bold adventure, worthy of our trip." Aristophanes

       "I hope there's lots of food in our next adventure."
Tum Tum Ninja Turtles

       "Life is adventure, not predicament." James
Broughton

       "If at first you don't succeed so much for
skydiving." Henry Youngman

2008\05\28@214727 by Jinx

face picon face
> I'm a private pilot
> Nate

Nate, do you have any experience with TLS ? A flying acquaintance
asked recently if I could help him put one together at a rural airport /
airstrip for both landings and pilot training

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transponder_Landing_System

2008\05\28@221848 by Cedric Chang

flavicon
face
{Quote hidden}

I am not a sky pilot ; I do pilot an automobile and I make  
substantial efforts to reduce my risk factor.  I wear a seat belt, I  
make sure my tires and brakes are good.  I have run hundreds of hours  
of emergency simulations as I drive.  ( What would I do if the car in  
front suddenly stopped.  What would I do if the car coming toward me  
swerved into my lane ? )   I have trained myself to avoid tailgating  
even when I am daydreaming.  I change lanes and speeds as  
infrequently as possible.  I use my blinker well in advance of  
moving right or left.  I start stopping well in advance of red lights  
or stop signs and I stop behind them.

cc

2008\05\29@031235 by Nate Duehr

face
flavicon
face

On May 28, 2008, at 7:46 PM, Jinx wrote:

>> I'm a private pilot
>> Nate
>
> Nate, do you have any experience with TLS ? A flying acquaintance
> asked recently if I could help him put one together at a rural  
> airport /
> airstrip for both landings and pilot training
>
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transponder_Landing_System


Sorry, no.

I got to ride along in an aircraft that used MLS (Microwave Landing  
System) once, and flew in a number of LORAN-C equipped aircraft and  
used that in the early 90's, but GPS has long-eclipsed most of these  
technologies... especially when augmented here in the States by WAAS.  
(And I assume similar augmentation signals exist in some other  
countries?  Hmm... never looked into that.)

Most of my recent instrument training has been in aircraft with IFR-
certified GPS systems on-board, which is "nice", but of course you  
learn whatever you can get your hands on, and if it's in the aircraft  
during an FAA check-ride, they can expect you to fly with it.  (Thus  
for the timid, it's becoming common to schedule checkrides in aircraft  
not equipped with ADF receivers, for example.)

I wonder what your friend is planning on using to receive the TLS  
signals in the aircraft.  Be cautious if he asks you to build  
something to do that... aviation attorneys LOVE finding equipment in  
an accident aircraft that wasn't properly certified by whatever the  
local aviation authority is for use on-board aircraft...

Unfortunately, the instrument training is back "on-hold"... there was  
a short window there where I thought I could afford to spend serious  
time at the airport buzzing holes in the sky and then fuel prices  
soared, and along with it, rental rates... and I've "grounded myself"  
again...

I figure if I can't fly at least twice a month, I'm not really all  
that "safe"... and shouldn't be even thinking about carrying  
passengers, etc... even though the regulations over here (as well as  
most insurance companies) allow me 90 days of inactivity before I'm  
not "current" in rental aircraft.   (There are other rules for  
"currency" in night flight, instrument flight, etc... etc... etc...).

So I've focused back on my "other expensive hobby"... ham radio, and  
have been playing with digital radio... (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D-STAR
) and helping put up a system... (http://www.coloradodstar.org)...  
it's fun, but not as much fun as flying around in the sky for no  
reason at all!

:-)

--
Nate Duehr
EraseMEnatespam_OUTspamTakeThisOuTnatetech.com



2008\05\29@051801 by Jinx

face picon face
> technologies... especially when augmented here in the States by
> WAAS. (And I assume similar augmentation signals exist in some
> other  countries?  Hmm... never looked into that.)

ILS is used at major NZ airports (ISTR Auckland was just upgraded
to IIIB - funny what you take in when it's topical). My acquaintance is
quite confident TLS, WAAS and other instrumentation systems are not
used, which is why he wants to introduce it. As every plane has a
transponder, then TLS is what would be preferable, to save adding
GPS

> I wonder what your friend is planning on using to receive the TLS  
> signals in the aircraft.  Be cautious if he asks you to build something
> to do that...

He's mentioned buying certified gear and the two of us putting our
heads and experiences together. I think I'm basically on board to
"help". I'm quite aware of the equipment standards expected by
aviation authorities, which is why I wouldn't attempt making anything
from scratch. And especially if someone's already jumped through
all those expensive hoops

2008\05\29@205932 by Jinx

face picon face
> Or the way one of my mentors put it years ago, Piss Poor Planning
> Equals Piss Poor Performance... just like Electronics and Software
> Engineering

It so is. One of the frustrations of the job is convincing clients that
even though the circuit board looks just the same as it did last week,
the s/w is very much tougher (idiot-proofing, what ifs etc). Often
the core s/w, the bit that actually does something, might be 1/4 the
total. The rest is to stop it all going wrong. A little thought goes a
long way

More... (looser matching)
- Last day of these posts
- In 2008 , 2009 only
- Today
- New search...